Treasury allocation case study . prepared for Dialectic . 30 May 2026

How I'd deploy $25M of DUSD.

A full $25M allocation across the DeFi USD-yield universe, paired with an 18-page due diligence on the largest credit position. Sized by risk-adjusted return on a six-lens framework.

Net APY
4.16%
Average yield per year across all 5 positions, after fees
Spread vs benchmark
+56 bps
Extra return earned over a US 3-month Treasury
Annual yield in USD
$1.04M
Dollar income generated on the $25M book in one year
Probability of loss
5.1%
Chance the portfolio ends below $25M over 12 months

01 . Allocation explorer

Five positions, sized by risk-adjusted return.

Hover any slice for detail. Toggle Base vs Enhanced to swap the Maple satellite for the leverage loop.

$25.0M
5 positions
Blended 4.16%

02 . Yield scenarios

Bear, Base, Bull. Live.

Per-venue forward sigma shocked up or down, recomputed into portfolio APY and per-venue contribution.

4.16%
Blended net APY
+56 bps
Spread vs RF 3.60%
$1.04M
Annual yield on $25M
+1.25% sGHO
Largest net contribution (weight x net APY)

03 . Six-lens risk decomposition

Click a venue to see its risk profile.

Six lenses scored 1 (low) to 5 (high). Weighted composite drives the tier cap. Framework extends Dialectic Chronograph with Liquidity as a 6th lens.

.
Weighted composite
Tier.
Max cap .

04 . Live simulators

Forward distribution and historical replay.

Monte Carlo on the left for the forward view. Twelve-month backtest on the right showing how current weights would have performed over the trailing year.

Forward yield distribution

1,500 paths, AR(1) rho 0.7, with annual Bernoulli tail events. Slide to scale per-venue forward sigma.

1.0x
-0.07%
P5
4.08%
Median
4.60%
P95
5.1%
P(loss)
3.61%
Mean
-3.26%
ES (5%)

12-month NAV backtest

Portfolio at current weights, compounded monthly, net of cost drag. Benchmark is US 3M T-bill at 3.60% APY.

Jun '25 May '26
12m
$26.16M
Final NAV
4.66%
CAGR
7.40
Sharpe
0.00%
Max drawdown
100%
Hit rate
+106 bps
vs RF

05 . syrupUSDC due diligence . brief

The only Satellite position in the book.

15% NAV, $3.75M, the largest single tail. Full 18-page DD below covers mechanism, contract roster, audit history, stress evidence.

Audit depth

18 independent audits

Trail of Bits, Spearbit/Cantina, Three Sigma, 0xMacro, Sherlock, Dedaub, Sigma Prime. Continuous post-deployment cadence. $500k Immunefi bounty active.

Stress validation

10 Oct 2025 flash crash

9 margin calls cured in under 3 hours. Zero liquidations. Zero lender losses. $67M of withdrawals processed instantly. Two consecutive days of net inflows after.

Loan book . Maple app live
$2.02B
collateral . 150.2% aggregate . BTC ~81%

$1.35B loans against $2.02B of collateral. $430.52M idle liquidity. Top 6 loans BTC- or XRP-backed at 127% to 193% collateralisation.

Six-lens composite

2.75 . Economic-dominant

SC 2 . Economic 4 . Governance 3 . Oracle 2 . Liquidity 3 . Bridging 1. Off-chain underwriting by Maple Direct is the source of Economic 4.

Read full DD report (18 pages, PDF)

06 . Deliverables

Everything in one place.